Decision and Risk Analysis Services

We provide risk analysis services to help our clients make better informed decisions. Our probabilistic decision models quantify risk, providing deeper insight into real-world systems where uncertainty can significantly affect possible outcomes. Our quantitative models also identify inputs of particular sensitivity - where small changes in certain values have a disproportionate effect on end outcomes.

We will work with your data and your particular problem logic to create an appropriate decision or risk model which will accurately represent the uncertainties in your model inputs and data.

Our specific capabilities include:

• Monte Carlo simulation . Monte Carlo simulation is the most cost-effective methodology to quantify risk created from multiple sources of uncertainty. We use advanced software tools (including Crystal Ball^® and @RISK^©) to run these simulations and model the effects of this uncertainty.

• Analysis of variance . For inputs with available data, we provide in-depth statistical analysis and insight into the factors most responsible for variances within the data.

• Sensitivity analysis . We provide quantitative measurements of the sensitivity of possible outcomes to variation of uncertain inputs. This can assist in determining the most crucial inputs to the model.

• Forecasting . For inputs with available data, we construct stochastic time-series or regression analysis models to predict future values and to identify current trends in the uncertain input data.